Ambient PM<sub>2.5</sub> Reduces Global and Regional Life Expectancy
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution is a major risk for premature death. Here, we systematically quantify the global impact of PM2.5 on life expectancy. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease project and actuarial standard life table methods, we estimate global and national decrements in life expectancy that can be attributed to ambient PM2.5 for 185 countries. In 2016, PM2.5 exposure reduced average global life expectancy at birth by ∼1 year with reductions of ∼1.2–1.9 years in polluted countries of Asia and Africa. If PM2.5 in all countries met the World Health Organization Air Quality Guideline (10 μg m–3), we estimate life expectancy could increase by a population-weighted median of 0.6 year (interquartile range of 0.2–1.0 year), a benefit of a magnitude similar to that of eradicating lung and breast cancer. Because background disease rates modulate the effect of air pollution on life expectancy, high age-specific rates of cardiovascular disease in many polluted low- and middle-income countries amplify the impact of PM2.5 on survival. Our analysis adds to prior research by illustrating how mortality from air pollution substantially reduces human longevity.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.014 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it