Short and Long-Run Determinants of Inflation in Saudi Arabia: A Cointegration Analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper investigates the short and long-run determinants of inflation in Saudi Arabia for the period of 1987-2017. To achieve this objective, the Johansen and Julius cointegration procedure and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) were conducted to examine the existence of the short and long-run relationships between inflation, the money supply, domestic demand, the exchange rate and oil prices. The results reveal that inflation, in the long-run, is positively influenced by the money supply, domestic demand, and oil prices. It is negatively influenced by the exchange rate. Inflation is also highly influenced by domestic factors in the short-run (e.g., money supply, domestic demand). The Granger causality results indicate a bi-directional causality between the money supply and inflation. The unidirectional causality goes from the domestic demand and the oil prices to the price level. The Impulse Response Analysis illustrates that shocks associated with the money supply, domestic demand and oil prices have a positive impact on inflation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".