Applying National Estimates of Adults With Indications for Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis to Populations of Men Who Have Sex With Men and People Who Inject Drugs in Colorado: Modeling Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a highly effective option for HIV prevention. To realize the full benefit of PrEP at the population level, uptake must reach those at the greatest risk of HIV acquisition. Guidance published by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) suggests that the number of individuals with indications for PrEP is 1.1-1.2 million nationally based on survey data of key populations and local transmission patterns. We applied these estimates at state and county levels to determine the number of individuals who might benefit from PrEP locally and compared our estimates to CDC-published estimates for Colorado. OBJECTIVE: This analysis aimed to produce estimates of key populations with indications for PrEP in Colorado as a whole and by county type. These estimates will be used for public health strategic planning for HIV prevention goals at the state and county jurisdictional levels. METHODS: Colorado population estimates were obtained from the state demography office, which utilizes US decennial census data and input from county and local agencies to forecast the population. We limited our analysis to adults aged 18-59 years to be consistent with CDC methodology for PrEP estimates. We performed a literature review to define the best population-level percentages to determine numbers of HIV-negative men who have sex with men (MSM) and people who inject drugs (PWID) in Colorado. These percentages were applied to the state and to each county by its rural-urban designation. Finally, CDC-derived percentages of MSM and PWID with indications for PrEP were applied to these estimates to determine numbers of MSM and PWID who may benefit from PrEP use. RESULTS: In 2017, 3,252,648 adults aged 18-59 years were living in Colorado. By applying published estimates of percentages of men who had sex with other men in the past 12 months, we determined that 41,353-49,624 adult males could be considered sexually active MSM. We estimated that 9758-13,011 adults aged 18-59 years were likely to have injected drugs in the past 12 months. By accounting for numbers of people living with HIV in those categories and applying the CDC PrEP percentages of MSM and PWID with indications for PrEP nationally, we estimated that 8792-12,528 MSM and PWID in Colorado had indications for PrEP; this number is smaller than that estimated by CDC, although within the lower CI limit. CONCLUSIONS: By employing a simple framework consisting of census data, literature review, population estimates, and national estimates for PrEP indicators, we derived estimates for potential PrEP use in our state. Statewide estimates of key populations by state and county type will enable health officials to set informed goals and track progress toward optimizing PrEP uptake. This formula may be applicable to other states with similar epidemics and resources. .
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".