Global establishment threat from a major forest pest via international shipping: Lymantria dispar
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The global shipping network is widely recognised as a pathway for vectoring invasive species. One species of particular concern is Lymantria dispar (gypsy moth). Two subspecies, L. d. asiatica and L. d. japonica (herein referred to as Asian Gypsy Moth - AGM) are of considerable concern as ships arriving to a number of countries have been found carrying AGM egg masses. However, ships carrying AGM eggs can only threaten a country at ports located in a climatically suitable region. We present a CLIMEX model of climate suitability and combine this with international shipping to estimate the global threat from AGM. We find that for the USA more than half of international ships (approximately 18,000 ships) arrive to climatically suitable ports. Other countries with a large number of ships arriving to ports with suitable climates include Canada and Brazil. This is the first global analysis of the invasion threat from AGM, and we recommend countries focus AGM-inspection programs towards ships arriving at ports found within climatically suitable regions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.011 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".