International Comparison in Opiate Prescribing for New Users in Primary Care using Electronic Medical Record Data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
IntroductionThe opioid epidemic in North America has, in part, been attributed to an increase in opiate use for non-cancer pain and the prescription of more potent molecules. In contrast, the United Kingdom appears unaffected by this crisis, possibly because of differences in primary care prescribing, or health system policies.
 ObjectiveTo determine if there are differences in opiate prescribing for new users in primary care in the United Kingdom, United States, and Canada.
 ApproachElectronic health record data from Quebec, Canada (MOXXI), the United States (Partners Health Care, Boston MA), and the United Kingdom (CPRD random sample of 600,000) were used to identify new users of opiates (no prior prescription in 2 years), at least 18 years old between 2006-2016. Cancer patients were excluded after harmonizing equivalent READ and ICD9/10 codes. Generic drug names in each jurisdiction were mapped to the WHO ATC classification, and characterized using morphine milligram equivalents (MME).
 ResultsOverall 655,877 new users were identified, of whom 78% of 58,286 (U.S.), 88% of 6,251 (Canada), and 96% of 600,000 (UK) were non-cancer patients. Mean age of new users was 49 (SD 16) in the US, 57 (SD 16) in Canada, and 52 (SD 19) in the UK. 57.6% (UK) to 67.3% (US) of new users were women. In the UK, 86.5% of patients were started on codeine (MME:0.15), compared to 43.9% in Canada and 8.5% in the U.S. In the U.S 65.0\% were started on oxycodone (MME:1.5), and 10.9% on hydrocodone (MME:1). In Canada, tramadol (18.2%; MME: 0.1) followed by oxycodone (13.2%) were the next most commonly prescribed drugs.
 Conclusion/ImplicationsSubstantial differences in opioid prescribing practices for non-cancer pain were observed between the UK and Canadian and United States sites. The predilection to start patients on more potent opiates in North America may be a contributing cause to the opiate epidemic.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".