The Draconid Meteoroid Stream 2018: Prospects for Satellite Impact Detection
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Predictions of the 2018 Draconid activity at the Earth and the Sun–Earth L1 and L2 Lagrange points are presented. Numerical simulations of the meteoroids’ ejection and evolution from comet 21P/Giacobini–Zinner are performed with a careful implementation of the results analysis and weighting. Model meteoroid fluxes at Earth are derived using as calibration the main peak date, intensity, and shower profiles of previous Draconid outbursts. Good agreement between the model and measurements is found for the 1933, 1946, 1998, and 2011 showers for a meteoroid size distribution index at ejection of about 2.6. A less accurate estimate of the peak time for the 1985, 2005, and 2012 predominantly radio-observed outbursts was found by considering the contribution of individual ejection epochs, while the model peak flux estimate was found to agree with observations to within a factor of 3. Despite the promising geometrical configuration in 2018, our simulations predict low Draconid activity is expected on Earth, with a maximum of less than a few tens of meteors per hour around midnight of 2018 October 9, confirming previous models. At the L1 and L2 Lagrange points, however, the flux estimates suggest a “meteoroid storm.” The Gaia spacecraft at the L2 region might be able to detect small (≈ μ g) Draconid meteoroid impacts centered in a two-hour window around 18 h 30 m UT on the 2018 October 8.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".