Modeling the Dependence Structure of Share Prices among Three Chinese City Banks
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We study the dependence structure of share price returns among the Beijing Bank, Ningbo Bank, and Nanjing Bank using copula models. We use the normal, Student’s t, rotated Gumbel, and symmetrized Joe-Clayton (SJC) copula models to estimate the underlying dependence structure in two periods: one covering the global financial crisis and the other covering the domestic share market crash in China. We show that Beijing Bank is less dependent on the other two city banks than Nanjing Bank, which is dependent on the other two in share price extreme returns. We also observe a major decrease of dependency from 2007 to 2018 in three one-to-one dependence structures. Interestingly, contrary to recent literatures, Ningbo Bank and Nanjing Bank tend to be more dependent on each other in positive returns than in negative returns during the past decade. We also show the dynamic dependence structures among three city banks using time-varying copula.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".