Frequency of volcanic eruptions in the Mammoth Lakes Sierra
Bibliographic record
Abstract
First posted September 26, 2018 For additional information, contact: Volcano Science Center - Menlo ParkU.S. Geological Survey345 Middlefield Road, MS 910Menlo Park, CA 94025 Geologists recognize lavas and ash deposits from about 60 past eruptions in the area around Mammoth Mountain and Devils Postpile, California. This raises the unanswerable question, “When will it erupt again?” An alternative, answerable, and informative question is, “How often has it erupted?”In the Mammoth Lakes Sierra, geologists have mapped in great detail all the lavas and ash deposits produced by those 60 eruptions. They have dated almost all of them by laboratory methods, showing that eruptions have been repetitive and persistent, though not quite regular, over the last quarter-million years. For few volcanoes in the world is the long-term eruptive frequency so well calibrated as in the Mammoth Lakes Sierra.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".