Tariffs and the Composition of Employment: Evidence from the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement
Bibliographic record
Abstract
I analyze the effect of the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA) on the composition of employment at the local labour market level in Canada. I construct local labour-market-level changes in tariffs for both exports and imports, exploiting regional differences in pre-CUSFTA industrial composition to obtain variation in the degree to which CUSFTA affected localities across Canada. I find that Census Divisions (CDs) that experienced larger Canadian tariff cuts against US imports experienced higher rates of self-employment. CDs with larger American tariff cuts against Canadian goods correspondingly experienced lower rates of self-employment. These self-employment effects are dampened in CDs with higher initial shares of educated people, immigrants, and female workers. I do not find any evidence that part-time employment is affected by CUSFTA tariff cuts. The findings in this article provide evidence that increasing trade openness between two developed countries can affect the prevalence of self-employment.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".