Competitive lottery-based assembly of selected clades in the human gut microbiome
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: While the composition of the gut microbiome has now been well described by several large-scale studies, models that can account for the range of microbiome compositions that have been observed are still lacking. One model that has been well studied in macro communities and that could be useful for understanding microbiome assembly is the competitive lottery model. This model posits that groups of organisms from a regional pool of species are able to colonize the same niche and that the first species to arrive will take over the entire niche, excluding other group members. RESULTS: Here, we examined whether this model also plays a role in the assembly of the human gut microbiome, defining measures to identify groups of organisms whose distribution across samples conforms to the competitive lottery schema. Applying this model to multiple datasets with thousands of human gut microbiome samples, we identified several taxonomic groups that exhibit a lottery-like distribution, including the Akkermansia, Dialister, and Phascolarctobacterium genera. We validated that these groups exhibit lottery-like assembly in multiple independent microbiome datasets confirming that this assembly schema is universal and not cohort specific. Examining the distribution of species from these groups in the gut microbiome of developing infants, we found that the initial lottery winner can be replaced by a different member of the group. We further found that species from lottery-like groups tend to have fewer genes in their genomes, suggesting more specialized species that are less able to engage in niche differentiation. CONCLUSIONS: Combined, our findings highlight the complex and dynamic process through which microbial communities assemble and suggest that different phylogenetic groups may follow different models during this process.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.014 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".