Suspicious index in Lyme carditis: Systematic review and proposed new risk score
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Lyme carditis (LC), an early manifestation of Lyme disease that most commonly presents as high-degree atrioventricular block (AVB), usually resolves with antibiotic treatment. When LC is not identified as the cause of AVB, a permanent pacemaker may be inappropriately implanted in a reversible cardiac conduction disorder. HYPOTHESIS: The likelihood that a patient's high-degree AVB is caused by LC can be evaluated by clinical characteristics incorporated into a risk stratification tool. METHODS: A systematic review of all published cases of LC with high-degree AVB, and five cases from the authors' experience, was conducted. The results informed the development of a new risk stratification tool, the Suspicious Index in LC (SILC) score. The SILC score was then applied to each case included in the review. RESULTS: Of the 88 cases included, 51 (58%) were high-risk, 31 (35.2%) intermediate-risk, and 6 (6.8%) low-risk for LC according to the SILC score (sensitivity 93.2%). For the subset of 32 cases that reported on all SILC variables, 24 (75%) cases were classified as high-risk, 8 (25%) intermediate-risk, and 0 low-risk (sensitivity 100%). Specificity could not be assessed (no control group). Notably, 6 of the 11 patients who received permanent pacemakers had reversal of AVB with antibiotic treatment. CONCLUSION: The SILC risk score and COSTAR mnemonic (constitutional symptoms; outdoor activity; sex = male; tick bite; age < 50; rash = erythema migrans) may help to identify LC in patients presenting with high-degree AVB, and ultimately, minimize the implantation of unnecessary permanent pacemakers.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.012 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it