International Emissions Trading Approach to Meet the Kyoto Protocol: The Implications of Hot Air Trading on Global Environment and Economy
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Kyoto Protocol came into effect in early 2005, following the formal ratification of the Russian Federation. Starting from 2008, the Russian Federation can sell its reductions in emissions, normally referred to as hot air, in the international trading system. This paper aims to examine the quantitative effects of trading hot air among the Annex-I countries on global environment and economy. It is found that trading hot air leads to a fall in the price of the AAUs (Assigned Amount Units), consequently undermining the incentive to make the domestic abatement. However, trading hot air helps to lower the cost of meeting the Kyoto targets. For each of the Annex-I countries that has abatement obligation, the compliance cost in the scenario where the hot air is traded is around 85% of that in the scenario where the hot air is not traded. The sum of the compliance costs for the Annex-I countries in the scenario with hot air reduces to 80% of that in the scenario without hot air.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.005 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".