Linkage Between Westerly Wind Bursts and Tropical Cyclones
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The westerly wind burst (WWB) in the equatorial Pacific strongly impacts on the genesis and diversity of El Niño, as manifested by its crucial role in the 2014–2016 El Niño events. However, the origin of WWB is still far from clear, rendering El Niño prediction, a persistently challenging task. Here we confirm a robust linkage between WWB and tropical cyclone (TC) from a set of observational and reanalysis data. Specifically, about 69% of WWBs were closely associated with TCs in the western tropical Pacific, and the three‐dimensional structure of WWBs highly resembled that of TCs. Such a close relationship readily explains not only the unidirectional and intermittent nature of WWBs but also the state dependency, seasonality, and spatial distribution of these bursts. An important implication is that, with skillful seasonal forecast of WWB‐associated TCs, we may be able to predict the seasonal activity of WWBs and thus improve El Niño prediction.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.003 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".