Scenario analysis of accelerated coal phase-out by 2030: A study on the European power system based on the EUCO27 scenario using the METIS model
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The present report is a hands-on exercise by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) using the METIS model (Artelys, 2017). The area covered by the analysis extends to the 28 EU member states plus Norway, Switzerland and the Western Balkans. The model is used on two variations of the European Commission EUCO27 scenario built to simulate the impacts of an accelerated coal phase-out policy unfolding during the next decade. One of the first results is that the simulated coal-fired capacity retirement will lead to conditions of lacking adequacy in certain areas. The two new scenarios restore adequacy by expanding the European power system in two opposing directions. The first is an expansion-as-usual scenario, based on new thermal peaking capacity. The second represents a scenario, where additional optimally placed renewable capacity, coupled with interconnection upgrades and limited storage, appear equally effective in restoring adequacy to the affected regions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".