Scenario analysis of accelerated coal phase-out by 2030: A study on the European power system based on the EUCO27 scenario using the METIS model
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The present report is a hands-on exercise by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) using the METIS model (Artelys, 2017). The area covered by the analysis extends to the 28 EU member states plus Norway, Switzerland and the Western Balkans. The model is used on two variations of the European Commission EUCO27 scenario built to simulate the impacts of an accelerated coal phase-out policy unfolding during the next decade. One of the first results is that the simulated coal-fired capacity retirement will lead to conditions of lacking adequacy in certain areas. The two new scenarios restore adequacy by expanding the European power system in two opposing directions. The first is an expansion-as-usual scenario, based on new thermal peaking capacity. The second represents a scenario, where additional optimally placed renewable capacity, coupled with interconnection upgrades and limited storage, appear equally effective in restoring adequacy to the affected regions.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.009 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it