Timing of Grape Downy Mildew Onset in Bordeaux Vineyards
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Grapevine downy mildew (GDM) is a severe disease of grapevines. Because of the lack of reliable information about the dates of GDM symptom onset, many vine growers begin fungicide treatments early in the season. We evaluate the extent to which such preventive treatments are justified. Observational data for 266 untreated sites for the years between 2010 and 2017 were used to estimate the timing of GDM onset on vines and bunches of grapes in South West France (Bordeaux region) through survival analyses. The onset of GDM was not apparent on vines and bunches before early to mid-May, and the rate of GDM symptom appearance was highly variable across years. Depending on the year, 50% of the plots displayed symptoms between mid-May and late June for vines. For several years, our statistical analysis revealed that the proportion of plots with no symptoms was high in early August on vines (27.5 and 43.7% in 2013 and 2016) and on bunches (between 23 and 79% in 2011, 2013, and 2016). We found a significant effect of the amount of rainfall in spring on the date of symptom appearance. These results indicate that preventive fungicide application is unjustified in many vineyards, and that regional disease surveys should be used to adjust fungicide treatment dates according to local characteristics, in particular according to rainfall conditions in spring.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".