Reliable real-time Polar Cap (PC) indices for space weather monitoring and forecasts
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Polar Cap (PC) indices were approved by the International Association for Geomagnetism and Aeromony (IAGA) by Resolution No. 3 (2013) noting that “IAGA … recommends use of the PC index by the international scientific community in its near-real time and definitive forms”. PC indices were made available in 2014 at the web portal http://pcindex.org holding near-real time as well as final index values. The near-real time PC index values are not permanently available. However, analyses of indices on basis of occasional downloads have detected differences between near-real time and final PC indices of up to 3.65 mV/m (Stauning, 2018b, Ann Geophys, 36, 621–631). At such differences, one or the other index may indicate (or hide) strong geomagnetic activity without justification in the actual conditions. The present work has disclosed the cause of observed large differences between real-time and final PC index values in the IAGA-endorsed versions. In addition, anticipated differences are derived on a general basis from the available basic magnetic data by using the index calculation procedures and calibration constants provided by the PC index suppliers. It is shown that corresponding or even larger anomalies are expected to be common during moderate to strong magnetic activity where the near-real time PC indices might otherwise prove very useful for space weather monitoring, e.g., for power grid protection. An alternative real-time PC index derivation scheme described here reduces the excessive differences between real-time and final PC index values by an order of magnitude.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.008 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".