Improvements to a long-term Rayleigh-scatter lidar temperature climatology by using an optimal estimation method
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. Hauchecorne and Chanin (1980) developed a robust method to calculate middle-atmosphere temperature profiles using measurements from Rayleigh-scatter lidars. This traditional method has been successfully used to greatly improve our understanding of middle-atmospheric dynamics, but the method has some shortcomings regarding the calculation of systematic uncertainties and the vertical resolution of the retrieval. Sica and Haefele (2015) have shown that the optimal estimation method (OEM) addresses these shortcomings and allows temperatures to be retrieved with confidence over a greater range of heights than the traditional method. We have calculated a temperature climatology from 519 nights of Purple Crow Lidar Rayleigh-scatter measurements using an OEM. Our OEM retrieval is a first-principle retrieval in which the forward model is the lidar equation and the measurements are the level-0 count returns. It includes a quantitative determination of the top altitude of the retrieved temperature profiles, the evaluation of nine systematic plus random uncertainties, and the vertical resolution of the retrieval on a profile-by-profile basis. Our OEM retrieval allows for the vertical resolution to vary with height, extending the retrieval in altitude 5 to 10 km higher than the traditional method. It also allows the comparison of the traditional method's sensitivity to two in-principle equivalent methods of specifying the seed pressure: using a model pressure seed versus using a model temperature combined with the lidar's density measurement to calculate the seed pressure. We found that the seed pressure method is superior to using a model temperature combined with the lidar-derived density. The increased altitude capability of our OEM retrievals allows for a comparison of the Rayleigh-scatter lidar temperatures throughout the entire altitude range of the sodium lidar temperature measurements. Our OEM-derived Rayleigh temperatures are shown to have improved agreement relative to our previous comparisons using the traditional method, and the agreement of the OEM-derived temperatures is the same as the agreement between existing sodium lidar temperature climatologies. This detailed study of the calculation of the new Purple Crow Lidar temperature climatology using the OEM establishes that it is both highly advantageous and practical to reprocess existing Rayleigh-scatter lidar measurements that cover long time periods, during which time the lidar may have undergone several significant equipment upgrades, while gaining an upper limit to useful temperature retrievals equivalent to an order of magnitude increase in power-aperture product due to the use of an OEM.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".