Iceberg Melting and Climate Change in NW Atlantic Waters
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Climate change is predicted to cause increases in sea surface temperature (SST), as well as decreases in sea-ice cover, wind and current velocities. These changes will have a marked effect on iceberg melting in the shipping lanes off Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada. Icebergs that today can cross from northern Labrador to Newfoundland without melting will in the future have to be much larger to survive the transit. For example, icebergs at N Labrador in December of 2016 that are smaller than 156 m will melt before reaching 48N, but in year 2100 the length increases to 228 m. In addition, if future iceberg size distributions off Labrador are the same as today, icebergs will experience roughly 50% reductions in numbers in the NW Atlantic shipping lanes by year 2100. The increased melting rates are due to, in order of importance, increased sea-surface temperatures (responsible for 66% of the increase in the minimum transit size), decreasing current velocities (31%), and decreasing sea-ice cover (3%). Decreasing sea-ice tends to increase wave heights as well as accelerate the effects of wave erosion; however, for the areas studied the wave height is predicted to decrease moderately in year 2100, by a maximum of about 10% in December.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".