Late‐July Barrier for Subseasonal Forecast of Summer Daily Maximum Temperature Over Yangtze River Basin
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Dynamical subseasonal forecast skill of summer daily maximum temperature ( T max ) over East China was evaluated based on a 20‐year (1995–2014) subseasonal reforecast data set from the European Centre for Medium‐range Weather Forecasts. A significant late‐July barrier of subseasonal forecast skill was identified for the T max over the Yangtze River Basin, which concurs with a reduction in the prediction skill for the local 500‐hPa geopotential height. This barrier period corresponds to an abrupt transitional phase of the climatological intraseasonal oscillation when the western North Pacific subtropical high abruptly migrates northward from Yangtze River Basin to northern China. The transitional phase of the climatological intraseasonal oscillation features the largest day‐to‐day variance in the position of western North Pacific subtropical high, which may cause the drop of the subseasonal forecast skill for both the geopotential height and T max . The results indicate that the atmospheric subseasonal predictability may be strongly affected by the phases of the local climatological intraseasonal variation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".