China’s Peaceful Rise and the Security Dilemma: A Theoretical Assessment of the Possibility and Inevitability of War
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The People’s Republic of China’s rapid accession to great power status has shifted the centre of gravity in international relations. China’s rise has produced a heated debate between scholars and policy makers concerning whether or not China can rise peacefully. History is riddled with numerous examples that illustrate the potential conflict that a rising power can produce. The security dilemma concept provides a useful theoretical framework for assessing the probability of war and is essential for understanding the role of misperception in exacerbating and mitigating international conflict. Rapidly growing military expenditures, the U.S. pivot to Asia and the triangular relationship between Beijing, Washington and Tokyo seem to suggest a chaotic future. However, cooperation between these states and the pursuit of foreign policies that address deep insecurities are a source of optimism and hope. China’s peaceful rise is entirely possible and dependent on a genuine desire to mitigate the destructive consequences produced by the security dilemma.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.009 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.017 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".