Strategic Analytics to Drive Provincial Dialysis Capacity Planning
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This chapter discusses applications of analytics at the strategic level of health system planning in the province of Ontario, Canada. To supplement the strategic priorities of the Ontario Renal Plan I, a roadmap developed by the Ontario Renal Network to guide its directions in coordinating renal care province-wide, an interactive user-friendly analytical capacity planning model was developed to forecast the growth of the prevalent chronic dialysis patient population and estimate consequent future need for hemodialysis stations at Ontario's dialysis facilities. The model also projects operational funding to care for dialysis patients, vascular surgeries to achieve arteriovenous fistula targets, peritoneal dialysis catheter insertions to achieve peritoneal dialysis prevalence targets, and incident dialysis patients to be sent home to achieve prevalent home dialysis targets. The model uses a variety of analytical methods, including time series analysis, mathematical optimization, geo-spatial analysis and Monte Carlo simulation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.006 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.011 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".