Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper proposes that the availability of new ideas in one sector can alter the return to developing ideas in other sectors, which can explain new facts about short-run changes in patenting. I assess short-run changes in innovation productivity using data on total patenting and average patent quality. I document that total patenting and patent quality are negatively related. Surprisingly though, this relationship disappears within industries. This aggregation puzzle arises from the inter-industry co-movement between patents and their average quality. Using BEA input-output tables, I show these inter-industry relationships strengthen with a spatial measure of complementarities. The level of patenting and patent quality can be unrelated at the industry level, if complementarities between sub-industries increase with aggregation. I develop a multi-sector aggregation model of heterogenous patent selection. The model matches cross industries differences in innovation. Changes in the innovation productivity of the less-productive industries can plausibly explain the new empirical facts. The findings suggest that fluctuations in innovation could be important for economic growth and business cycles.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.019 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".