Factor Analysis of the Russian Stock Market
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A quarter of a century after the first Russian joint stock companies were set up, the Russian equity market has become the leading market in Eastern and Central Europe. Russia has a state of the art trading and settlement system, with the Moscow Exchange (MOEX) being its centerpiece. The Russian joint stock companies successfully introduce the best practices of corporate governance. The accounting system is becoming more and more adequate and transparent. However, in the last decade the Russian stock market has demonstrated one of the worst returns in the world among the 20 largest economies. Judged by the main indicators (P/E, P/B, Dividend Yield) the Russian market looks very much undervalued. The authors analyze the causes of this situation, define the factors which impact most the Russian stock market (the ownership structure, volatility, dividend policy, the role of foreign investors, correlation with oil prices) and make the conclusion that the most important factor has been the sanctions imposed upon the largest Russian companies after 2014.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it