Efficient Traversal of Beta-Sheet Protein Folding Pathways Using Ensemble Models
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations can now predict ms-timescale folding processes of small proteins; however, this presently requires hundreds of thousands of CPU hours and is primarily applicable to short peptides with few long-range interactions. Larger and slower-folding proteins, such as many with extended β-sheet structure, would require orders of magnitude more time and computing resources. Furthermore, when the objective is to determine only which folding events are necessary and limiting, atomistic detail MD simulations can prove unnecessary. Here, we introduce the program tFolder as an efficient method for modelling the folding process of large β-sheet proteins using sequence data alone. To do so, we extend existing ensemble β-sheet prediction techniques, which permitted only a fixed anti-parallel β-barrel shape, with a method that predicts arbitrary β-strand/β-strand orientations and strand-order permutations. By accounting for all partial and final structural states, we can then model the transition from random coil to native state as a Markov process, using a master equation to simulate population dynamics of folding over time. Thus, all putative folding pathways can be energetically scored, including which transitions present the greatest barriers. Since correct folding pathway prediction is likely determined by the accuracy of contact prediction, we demonstrate the accuracy of tFolder to be comparable with state-of-the-art methods designed specifically for the contact prediction problem alone. We validate our method for dynamics prediction by applying it to the folding pathway of the well-studied Protein G. With relatively very little computation time, tFolder is able to reveal critical features of the folding pathways which were only previously observed through time-consuming MD simulations and experimental studies. Such a result greatly expands the number of proteins whose folding pathways can be studied, while the algorithmic integration of ensemble prediction with Markovian dynamics can be applied to many other problems.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".