The effects on intraregional agricultural trade of ending NAFTA's market access provisions
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract This paper explores the possible effects on agriculture of ending the market access provisions of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). This paper considers two hypothetical scenarios: one revolving around a fallback to most‐favored‐nation (MFN) tariff rates and the other considering the additional effect of increased transaction costs in intraregional trade. Results from a computable general equilibrium model indicate that applying MFN tariff rates to U.S.–Canada and U.S.–Mexico agricultural trade would lead to a 14.43% reduction in these trade flows, while a scenario also featuring higher transaction costs would bring an even larger reduction (21.25%). In both scenarios, almost every agricultural product experiences a reduction in bilateral trade, with U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico undergoing some of the largest proportionate decreases. Many sectors within North American agriculture would have lower output, including fruit and nuts, vegetables, oilseeds and vegetable oils, and processed foods in Canada; fruit, vegetables, and beef in Mexico; and poultry meat, pork, beef, and dairy products in the United States.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".