Decadal Variation in IOD Predictability During 1881–2016
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract In this study, a long‐term retrospective hindcast experiment is performed for the period from 1881 to 2016 with respect to tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans using a newly developed tropical intermediate coupled model. We focus on the predictability of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode, especially its decadal variation. There is a considerable decadal variation in IOD predictability, with high skill after the 1980s and low skill in 1940–1960. This decadal variation is significant when the prediction target is observed in the boreal autumn and winter months. Further diagnostic analysis revealed that this decadal variation was primarily due to the decadal variation in the El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO)‐IOD relation that characterized the ENSO‐induced precursor processes, strengthening the predictable IOD signal. Unlike the ENSO predictability that is substantially related to the ENSO signal, the IOD predictability is related to the ENSO‐induced signal rather than the total IOD signal.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".