Clinical Subpopulations in a Sample of North American Children Diagnosed With Acute Flaccid Myelitis, 2012-2016
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Importance: Acute flaccid myelitis (AFM) is an emerging poliolike illness of children whose clinical spectrum and associated pathogens are only partially described. The case definition is intentionally encompassing for epidemiologic surveillance to capture all potential AFM cases. Defining a restrictive, homogenous subpopulation may aid our understanding of this emerging disease. Objective: To evaluate the extent to which the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) case definition of AFM incorporates possible alternative diagnoses and to assess the plausibility of a case definition that enriches the biological homogeneity of AFM for inclusion in research studies. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective case analysis of children younger than 18 years diagnosed as having AFM between 2012 and 2016 using the CDC case definition. Group 1 included patients recruited from the United States and Canada based on the CDC case definition of AFM. Group 2 included patients referred to the Johns Hopkins Transverse Myelitis Center for evaluation of suspected AFM. Patients' records and imaging data were critically reviewed by 3 neurologists to identify those cases with definable alternative diagnoses, and the remaining patients were categorized as having restrictively defined AFM (rAFM). Clinical characteristics were compared between patients with rAFM (cases) and those with alternative diagnoses, and a case description distinguishing these AFM groups was identified. Interrater reliability of this description was confirmed for a subset of cases by a fourth neurologist. Data were analyzed between May 2017 and November 2018. Main Outcomes and Measures: Proportion of patients with possible alternative diagnosis. Results: Of the 45 patients who met the CDC AFM case definition and were included, the mean age was 6.1 years; 27 were boys (60%); and 37 were white (82%), 3 were Asian (7%), 1 was Hispanic (2%), and 4 were mixed race/ethnicity (9%). Of the included patients, 34 were classified as having rAFM, and 11 had alternate diagnoses (including transverse myelitis, other demyelinating syndromes, spinal cord stroke, Guillain-Barre syndrome, Chiari I myelopathy, and meningitis). Factors differing between groups were primarily asymmetry of weakness, lower motor neuron signs, preceding viral syndrome, symptoms evolving over hours to days, absence of sensory deficits, and magnetic resonance imaging findings. A case description was able to reliably define the rAFM group. Conclusions and Relevance: We present an approach for defining a homogeneous research population that may more accurately reflect the pathogenesis of the prototypical poliomyelitis-like subgroup of AFM. The definition of rAFM forms a blueprint for inclusion criteria in future research efforts, but more work is required for refinement and external validation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".