Mapping the summer 2017 surface water circulation of Picton Bay, ON
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract On March 24, 2017, a fuel spill from a partially submerged barge in Picton Bay contaminated the source water for the drinking water supply of the local township. Immediately after the spill, management decisions regarding the water intake plant operations were made based on contaminant observations and projected wind conditions. From a management perspective, it is essential to understand all the dynamical forcing for a system to direct the best decision-making but, unfortunately, there are no historical observations of currents in Picton Bay or any in-depth numerical modelling studies that have established the circulation patterns or hydrodynamics of the bay. This paper presents observations of surface speeds and drifter pathways collected using Lagrangian drifters and compares the observations to the velocity field estimates from a wind forced three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. Surface drifters were deployed from July to September and moved southwest into the bay during each deployment with almost no tendency to turn and drift out of the bay. Model simulations indicated that currents in the bay are sensitive to small-scale local winds and that a boundary current exists that connects the spill site to the area of the water intake pipes in wind conditions that are to the southwest or southeast.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".