Smoking Is Associated with Higher Disease Activity in Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Longitudinal Study Controlling for Time-varying Covariates
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Prior studies around the relationship between smoking and rheumatoid arthritis (RA) disease activity have reported inconsistent findings, which may be ascribed to heterogeneous study designs or biases in statistical analyses. We examined the association between smoking and RA outcomes using statistical methods that account for time-varying confounding and loss to followup. METHODS: We included 282 individuals with an RA diagnosis using electronic health record data collected at a public hospital between 2013 and 2017. Current smoking status and disease activity were assessed at each visit; covariates included sex, race/ethnicity, age, obesity, and medication use. We used longitudinal targeted maximum likelihood estimation to estimate the causal effect of smoking on disease activity measures at 27 months, and compared results to conventional longitudinal methods. RESULTS: Smoking was associated with an increase of 0.64 units in the patient global score compared to nonsmoking (p = 0.01), and with 2.58 more swollen joints (p < 0.001). While smoking was associated with a higher clinical disease activity score (2.11), the difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.22). We found no association between smoking and physician global score, or C-reactive protein levels, and an inverse association between smoking and tender joint count (p = 0.05). Analyses using conventional methods showed a null relationship for all outcomes. CONCLUSION: Smoking is associated with higher levels of disease activity in RA. Causal methods may be useful for investigations of additional exposures on longitudinal outcome measures in rheumatologic disease.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".