Forecasting Volatility: Evidence from the Saudi Stock Market
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the forecasting performance of linear and non-linear generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)–class models in terms of their in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting accuracy for the Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) and the Tadawul Industrial Petrochemical Industries Share Index (TIPISI) for petrochemical industries. We use the daily price data of the TASI and the TIPISI for the period of 10 September 2007 to 26 February 2015. The results suggest that the Asymmetric Power of ARCH (APARCH) model is the most accurate model in the GARCH class for forecasting the volatility of both the TASI and the TIPISI in the context of petrochemical industries, as this model outperforms the other models in model estimation and daily out-of-sample volatility forecasting of the two indices. This study is useful for the dataset examined, because the results provide a basis for traders, policy-makers, and international investors to make decisions using this model to forecast the risks associated with investing in the Saudi stock market, within certain limitations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".