Sistemas de predicción por conjuntos en el Mediterráneo
Bibliographic record
Abstract
El Mediterráneo occidental es un rincón endiabladamente original, demasiado autárquico, demasiado particular y demasiado complicado.Hemos de seguir estudiándolo si queremos adivinar algún día con mayor éxito que hoy las reacciones de su carácter caprichoso.J. M. JANSÀ GUARDIOLA, 1964 El peculiar mundo mediterráneo (un mar profundo, relativamente cálido buena parte del año, y rodeado de montañas) genera una meteorología específica, en algunos aspectos más predecible que la meteorología de los grandes espacios abiertos, pero de muy difícil predicción en otros aspectos, particularmente los relacionados con fenómenos adversos, frecuentemente asociados a configuraciones de pequeña escala.Para ese tipo de fenomenología la predicción por conjuntos puede ser imprescindible, al menos para acotar incertidumbres, y puede exigir planteamientos particulares.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.009 | 0.028 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.007 | 0.008 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.016 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".