The long-term effects of employer-sponsored pension plans on non-workplace returns on investments
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract What is the effect of having an employer-sponsored pension plan (EPP) on financial performance in non-workplace investments? This paper offers new insight into this unresolved empirical issue using administrative data on more than 345,000 tax filers from Canada. The paper makes two key contributions. First, an approach for inferring relative returns on investments is developed based on a longitudinal analysis of saving flow-of-funds and wealth data related to the use of the tax-free savings account (TFSA). The analysis shows that there is substantial heterogeneity in asset balances across individuals with equivalent saving histories. Second, having an EPP is shown to raise the average return on investment in other tax-preferred saving plans, albeit by a modest amount of approximately 0.50–1.25% over 5 years since the TFSA was introduced. This result is robust to augmenting the analysis to an instrumental variables approach, exploiting variation in the availability of EPPs across cohorts by sex and industry of employment.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.016 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".