Bibliographic record
Abstract
This chapter examines “generational congestion” by Millennials in large Canadian housing markets and offers a tool that planners and policymakers can use to examine and address this issue. Generational congestion means increasing demand in the housing market as a generational cohort starts to form new households and seeks to buy or rent houses in the market. The chapter begins with a contextual overview, focusing on the cohort approach to population projections, as well as the affordability constraints faced by young adults. The authors then examine the extent of generational congestion in Canada and illustrate necessary modifications to derive the index of generational congestion at a local level. The chapter finds that Millennial pressure on the Canadian housing market peaked in 2015, similar to the USA. The index of generational congestion shows wide variation across mid-sized and large metropolitan areas in the USA and Canada. Inclusive of net migration, the index shows that outflows may already be outpacing inflows in some Canadian housing markets, indicating that young adults could be the wrong generational change on which to focus. The increasing outflow of older adults may finally bring the challenges to local housing markets that have been prematurely forecast for years.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.006 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.025 | 0.003 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".