Performance prediction of construction projects using soft computing methods
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Key performance indicators (KPIs) evaluate different aspects of projects and are used to determine the health status of projects. While there is considerable work on project quantitative performance prediction, less attention, however, has been directed towards qualitative performance prediction. This paper offers a novel framework for qualitatively measuring and predicting six important construction project KPIs using the neuro-fuzzy technique. Neuro-fuzzy models are developed to map the KPIs of three critical project stages to whole project KPIs. Subtractive clustering is utilized to automatically generate initial fuzzy inference system (FIS) models and the artificial neural network (ANN) technique is used to tune the parameters of the initial FIS models. The relative weight of each KPI is determined using a series of computing methods namely, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and genetic algorithm (GA), to generate the performance indicator (PI). The developed models are validated with real project data showing that the rate of error is reasonably low. The results show that the AHP method is more accurate when compared to the GA method. This framework can be used in building construction projects to help decision-makers evaluate the performance of their projects.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".