Exploration of the kinematics of the 1963 vajont slide, Italy, using a numerical modelling toolbox
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Vajont Slide has been studied for half a century, \nyet questions about its kinematics and dynamics \nstill remain. Application of state-of-the-art numerical \ntechniques aids in understanding the slide’s mechanical \nbehaviour. In the current paper, we use four two- and \nthree-dimensional finite element, distinct element, and \nlattice-spring modelling codes in a toolbox approach \nto conduct a forensic, exploratory investigation of the \nkinematics of the slide. We examined the influence of \nrock mass properties and friction along the failure surface \nusing the 2D finite element code. Preliminary results \nindicate that weaker units within the sliding mass \ndeformed more than stronger units, and that a Prandtl \nwedge zone of transition developed between the active \nupper and passive lower blocks of the slide mass in the \nwest. The difference between the biplanar western sliding \nsurface and the more circular eastern surface proves \nto be significant in terms of stability. Models suggest \na critical friction angle of approximately 18°, above \nwhich the slope is stable. The 2D distinct element modelling \nresults indicate that both failure surface morphology \nand block size are important. Planar and arc-shaped \nfailure surfaces are most unstable, whereas rough undulating \nsurfaces are stable. As block size increases, overall \nslope stability increases and a lower friction angle \nalong the failure surface is required to initiate sliding. \nBlock kinematics were further investigated using a 3D \ndistinct element code. This numerical code illustrated \nthe controls of bounding structural features such as the Col Tramontin Fault and Erto Syncline, as well as block \nsize, on the failure. Finally, preliminary simulations in \na new 3D lattice-spring code show that crack clusters \ndeveloped, and became concentrated in the transition \nzone between the back and seat of the chair-shaped failure \nsurface.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it