The Impact of Correlated Metrics on the Interpretation of Defect Models
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Defect models are analytical models for building empirical theories related to software quality. Prior studies often derive knowledge from such models using interpretation techniques, e.g., ANOVA Type-I. Recent work raises concerns that correlated metrics may impact the interpretation of defect models. Yet, the impact of correlated metrics in such models has not been investigated. In this paper, we investigate the impact of correlated metrics on the interpretation of defect models and the improvement of the interpretation of defect models when removing correlated metrics. Through a case study of 14 publicly- available defect datasets, we find that (1) correlated metrics have the largest impact on the consistency, the level of discrepancy, and the direction of the ranking of metrics, especially for ANOVA techniques. On the other hand, we find that removing all correlated metrics (2) improves the consistency of the produced rankings regardless of the ordering of metrics (except for ANOVA Type-I); (3) improves the consistency of ranking of metrics among the studied interpretation techniques; (4) impacts the model performance by less than 5 percentage points. Thus, when one wishes to derive sound interpretation from defect models, one must (1) mitigate correlated metrics especially for ANOVA analyses; and (2) avoid using ANOVA Type-I even if all correlated metrics are removed.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.043 | 0.285 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.006 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.006 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".