Emergence of the Zika virus Asian lineage in Angola
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Research In Context Evidence before this study We searched PubMed without language restrictions using the keywords ‘Zika’ and ‘Africa’ for papers published to October 2018. We also checked available ‘Situation Report’ publications from WHO for evidence of Zika virus (ZIKV) or congenital Zika disease in Africa. ZIKV African lineage has been detected within Africa since the mid 20 th century, yet evidence for spread of the ZIKV Asian lineage within Africa is limited. Two countries in Africa (Cabo Verde and Angola) have reported ZIKV cases that are believed to be caused by a newly introduced Asian lineage virus. Sequence data are critical for confirming and understanding the spread of ZIKV Asian lineage within Africa, but these data are currently limited to a single 193bp fragment of the ZIKV NS1 gene from Angola. In addition, whilst epidemiological data on ZIKV and suspected microcephaly cases have been reported in detail from Cabo Verde, data from Angola are extremely limited. Added value of this study We provide a detailed report of detected ZIKV acute cases and suspected microcephaly cases in Angola. We sequence ZIKV genomes from three acutely infected cases. These represent the first three Asian lineage genomes available from Africa, one of which was acquired from a baby with confirmed microcephaly. Analysis of these sequences suggests that ZIKV may have been introduced to Angola between July 2015 and June 2016, after which it likely circulated for at least one year. This provides the first genetic confirmation of autochthonous ZIKV Asian lineage transmission within Africa. We suggest that the virus was more likely introduced to Angola directly from Brazil, rather than from Cabo Verde. Our analyses from Angola, only the second African country to report presence of the Asian virus lineage, therefore improve our understanding of the extent and clinical impact of ZIKV Asian lineage in the continent. Implications of all the available evidence The circulation of ZIKV Asian lineage within parts of sub-Saharan Africa is concerning given the potential for continued viral spread across much of the continent. Available evidence suggests that ZIKV has circulated and caused cases of microcephaly in Cabo Verde and in Angola. Detecting additional ZIKV transmission using only clinical data on suspected microcephaly or clusters of mild illness may be challenging in countries where systems for reporting birth defects are limited and infectious disease burden is high. Further spread of the ZIKV Asian lineage would likely not be detected unless molecular surveillance systems for ZIKV are implemented to routinely monitor ZIKV transmission in Africa. Implementation of such a surveillance system is especially important in countries that are linked by high human mobility to areas that have experienced recent or ongoing outbreaks of ZIKV. Abstract Background Zika virus (ZIKV) infections and suspected microcephaly cases have been recently reported in Angola, but no data are available on the origins, epidemiology, and diversity of the virus. Methods Serum samples from 54 suspected ZIKV cases, 76 suspected microcephaly cases, and 24 mothers of infants with suspected microcephaly were received by the Angolan Ministry of Health. Computed tomographic brain imaging and serological assays (PRNT) were conducted on one microcephalic infant. All sera were tested for ZIKV by RT-qPCR. 349 samples from HIV+ patients and 336 samples from patients suspected of chikungunya virus or dengue virus infection were also tested. Portable sequencing was used to generate Angolan ZIKV genome sequences, including from a ZIKV+ neonate with microcephaly born in Portugal to an Angolan resident. Genetic and mobility data were analysed to investigate the date of introduction and geographic origin of ZIKV in Angola. Findings Four autochthonous cases were ZIKV positive via RT-qPCR, with all positive samples collected between December 2016 and June 2017. Viral genomes were generated for two of these cases, and from the neonate with microcephaly identified in Portugal. Genetic analyses and other data indicate that ZIKV was introduced to Angola from Brazil between July 2015 and June 2016. This introduction likely initiated local ZIKV circulation in Angola that continued until June 2017. The scanned microcephaly case showed brain abnormalities consistent with congenital Zika syndrome and serological evidence for maternal ZIKV infection. Interpretation Our analyses confirm the autochthonous transmission of the ZIKV Asian lineage in continental Africa. Conducting ZIKV surveillance throughout Africa is critical in the light of presented evidence for autochthonous ZIKV transmission in Angola, and associated microcephaly cases. Funding Royal Society, Wellcome Trust, CNPq, CAPES, ERC, Oxford Martin School, Global Challenges Research Fund, Africa Oxford, and John Fell Fund.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.012 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.008 | 0.008 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".