Abstract 4: Analysis of West Coast Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and Kawasaki Disease “Dry Spells”
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Tropospheric winds from northeastern China have been linked to fluctuations in Kawasaki disease (KD) cases in Japan. These winds may carry aerosols that trigger KD in genetically susceptible children. We investigated whether reduced numbers of KD cases were linked to large scale circulation patterns affecting the U.S. West Coast. Methods: KD cases with either date of onset of fever or date of hospitalization (PHIS, Pediatric Health Information System) were obtained from 5 sites from Seattle to San Diego from 1995-2014. Six days were subtracted from date of hospitalization to approximate date of onset. For each site, periods from December-March were identified for which there were no KD cases for an interval of ≥10 days, called “KD dry spells”. Daily NCEP-NCAR atmospheric Reanalysis 700hPa height anomalies were used to represent the atmospheric circulation. Results: From 27-48 dry spells were defined for each site. Composites of atmospheric circulation from Day -20 to Day +10 relative to first day of a dry spell were created for each study site. The atmospheric circulation preceding the KD dry spell featured a higher than normal pressure center (results in weakened onshore flow) either offshore over the North Pacific or directly over the site. The circulation anomalies were statistically significant, and unlikely to have occurred by chance. The dry spell pattern intensified and persisted over several days. The strongest anomalous atmospheric circulation (and associated blocked wind flow) occurred between Day -6 to -1 relative to the start of the dry spell. A similar pattern was shared by 4 of the 5 sites. One site featured strong high pressure anomalies > 6 days before the KD dry spells, but only a weak anomaly in the Day -6 to-1 interval preceding the dry spell. Conclusion: This analysis reinforces results from previous studies of KD case fluctuations in Japan wherein anomalous KD activity was associated with particular wind flow patterns. The circulation patterns associated with the West Coast KD “dry spells” suggest that reduced wind flow from the North Pacific results in reduced KD occurrences. These results support the hypothesis that a KD agent is transported by winds, possibly from a shared source region with transport of the agent across the Pacific.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".