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Record W2910083219 · doi:10.32910/ep.69.4.3

The Brexit and investors' fear

2018· article· en· W2910083219 on OpenAlex
Imlak Shaikh

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueEkonomski pregled · 2018
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicMarket Dynamics and Volatility
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsBrexitVolatility (finance)EconomicsReferendumEquity (law)PortfolioStock marketFinancial economicsEvent studyIndex (typography)Monetary economicsInternational economicsEuropean unionPolitical scienceGeography

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

This paper investigates most important implied volatility indices of Eurozone, Asia-Pacifi c, Africa, Canada and USA on the event of Brexit election of UK. Since the international economic events signal new information to market participants, the Brexit event has gauged in the 12 global markets’ volatility indices such as VFTSE, VIX, VDAX, VSMI, VSTOXX, VXJ, VHSI, VKOSPI, NVIX, VASX, VXIC and SAVI. A high fear of index about 20-36% has been noticed on the day of Brexit decision. Abnormal returns and cumulative abnormal returns on volatility index are found to be positive, while majority of global equity markets have reported negative stock returns on this event. To investigate the ‘fear-and-greed’ of investors on this historical event, a window of 11 -day has been considered. The findings suggest that investors’ degree of over-reaction on Brexit decision was very disappointing and fueled concerns on the future investment and portfolio choices. The key volatility indices were on the rise prior to the decision, while the market noticed astray and breached its normal range on the day of Brexit referendum. The findings suggest that market participants have diverted their funds into other safer investment outlets due to Brexit effects.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.315
Threshold uncertainty score0.382

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.019
GPT teacher head0.210
Teacher spread0.191 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it