A Robust Machine Learning Technique to Predict Low-performing Students
Bibliographic record
Abstract
As enrollments and class sizes in postsecondary institutions have increased, instructors have sought automated and lightweight means to identify students who are at risk of performing poorly in a course. This identification must be performed early enough in the term to allow instructors to assist those students before they fall irreparably behind. This study describes a modeling methodology that predicts student final exam scores in the third week of the term by using the clicker data that is automatically collected for instructors when they employ the Peer Instruction pedagogy. The modeling technique uses a support vector machine binary classifier, trained on one term of a course, to predict outcomes in the subsequent term. We applied this modeling technique to five different courses across the computer science curriculum, taught by three different instructors at two different institutions. Our modeling approach includes a set of strengths not seen wholesale in prior work, while maintaining competitive levels of accuracy with that work. These strengths include using a lightweight source of student data, affording early detection of struggling students, and predicting outcomes across terms in a natural setting (different final exams, minor changes to course content), across multiple courses in a curriculum, and across multiple institutions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".