The natural selection of words: Finding the features of fitness
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We introduce a dataset for studying the evolution of words, constructed from WordNet and the Google Books Ngram Corpus. The dataset tracks the evolution of 4,000 synonym sets (synsets), containing 9,000 English words, from 1800 AD to 2000 AD. We present a supervised learning algorithm that is able to predict the future leader of a synset: the word in the synset that will have the highest frequency. The algorithm uses features based on a word's length, the characters in the word, and the historical frequencies of the word. It can predict change of leadership (including the identity of the new leader) fifty years in the future, with an F-score considerably above random guessing. Analysis of the learned models provides insight into the causes of change in the leader of a synset. The algorithm confirms observations linguists have made, such as the trend to replace the -ise suffix with -ize, the rivalry between the -ity and -ness suffixes, and the struggle between economy (shorter words are easier to remember and to write) and clarity (longer words are more distinctive and less likely to be confused with one another). The results indicate that integration of the Google Books Ngram Corpus with WordNet has significant potential for improving our understanding of how language evolves.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it