Medication Adherence Prediction Through Online Social Forums: A Case Study of Fibromyalgia
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Medication nonadherence can compound into severe medical problems for patients. Identifying patients who are likely to become nonadherent may help reduce these problems. Data-driven machine learning models can predict medication adherence by using selected indicators from patients' past health records. Sources of data for these models traditionally fall under two main categories: (1) proprietary data from insurance claims, pharmacy prescriptions, or electronic medical records and (2) survey data collected from representative groups of patients. Models developed using these data sources often are limited because they are proprietary, subject to high cost, have limited scalability, or lack timely accessibility. These limitations suggest that social health forums might be an alternate source of data for adherence prediction. Indeed, these data are accessible, affordable, timely, and available at scale. However, they can be inaccurate. OBJECTIVE: This paper proposes a medication adherence machine learning model for fibromyalgia therapies that can mitigate the inaccuracy of social health forum data. METHODS: Transfer learning is a machine learning technique that allows knowledge acquired from one dataset to be transferred to another dataset. In this study, predictive adherence models for the target disease were first developed by using accurate but limited survey data. These models were then used to predict medication adherence from health social forum data. Random forest, an ensemble machine learning technique, was used to develop the predictive models. This transfer learning methodology is demonstrated in this study by examining data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey and the PatientsLikeMe social health forum. RESULTS: When the models are carefully designed, less than a 5% difference in accuracy is observed between the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey and the PatientsLikeMe medication adherence predictions for fibromyalgia treatments. This design must take into consideration the mapping between the predictors and the outcomes in the two datasets. CONCLUSIONS: This study exemplifies the potential and limitations of transfer learning in medication adherence-predictive models based on survey data and social health forum data. The proposed approach can make timely medication adherence monitoring cost-effective and widely accessible. Additional investigation is needed to improve the robustness of the approach and extend its applicability to other therapies and other sources of data.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.014 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".