Bedding-scale geomodelling for effective permeability estimation in the Upper McMurray Formation, NE Alberta, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The McMurray Formation is one of the most significant bitumen deposits in Canadian oil sands. Bitumen-bearing sand intervals deposited and reworked in fluvial, tidal or estuarine environments result in heterogeneous sediment distributions comprising clean sands and low-permeability muddy laminae or mud drapes. These interlayers increase the difficulty in estimating reservoir permeability, which is a critical geological parameter to predict the performance of in situ thermal processes of the oil sands projects. In this paper, we describe a bedding-scale geomodelling and simulation workflow using core images, core-plug and Vshale logs to estimate the effective permeability ( K h , K v ) in the Upper McMurray Formation. Details of five steps in this workflow are presented. To show the general applicability of this workflow, three pay-zone facies from tidal-channel infilled deposits of the Mackay River Project, CNPC, were selected to demonstrate this sedimentary process mimicking bedding-scale geomodelling strategy. The results of effective permeability estimation have the potential to improve history matching in flow simulations and performance forecasting.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".