Bedding-scale geomodelling for effective permeability estimation in the Upper McMurray Formation, NE Alberta, Canada
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The McMurray Formation is one of the most significant bitumen deposits in Canadian oil sands. Bitumen-bearing sand intervals deposited and reworked in fluvial, tidal or estuarine environments result in heterogeneous sediment distributions comprising clean sands and low-permeability muddy laminae or mud drapes. These interlayers increase the difficulty in estimating reservoir permeability, which is a critical geological parameter to predict the performance of in situ thermal processes of the oil sands projects. In this paper, we describe a bedding-scale geomodelling and simulation workflow using core images, core-plug and Vshale logs to estimate the effective permeability ( K h , K v ) in the Upper McMurray Formation. Details of five steps in this workflow are presented. To show the general applicability of this workflow, three pay-zone facies from tidal-channel infilled deposits of the Mackay River Project, CNPC, were selected to demonstrate this sedimentary process mimicking bedding-scale geomodelling strategy. The results of effective permeability estimation have the potential to improve history matching in flow simulations and performance forecasting.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it