MATHICSE Technical Report : A continuation multi level Monte Carlo (C-MLMC) method for uncertainty quantification in compressible aerodynamics
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this work we apply the Continuation Multi-Level Monte Carlo (C-MLMC) algorithm proposed by [Collier et al, BIT 2014] to efficiently propagate operational and geometrical uncertainties in compressible aerodynamics numerical simulations. The key idea of MLMC is that one can draw MC samples simultaneously and independently on several approximations of the problem under investigations on a hierarchy of nested computational grids (levels). The expectation of an output quantity is computed as a sample average using the coarsest solutions and corrected by averages of the differences of the solutions of two consecutive grids in the hierarchy. By this way, most of the computational effort is transported from the finest level (as in a standard Monte Carlo approach) to the coarsest one. In the continuation algorithm (C-MLMC) the parameters that control the number of levels and realizations per level are computed on the y to further reduce the overall computational cost. The C-MLMC is applied to the quasi 1D convergent-divergent Laval nozzle and the 2D transonic RAE-2822 airfoil.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.013 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".