A dinâmica da taxa de câmbio face às operações swap no Brasil (2002-2015): uma interpretação pós-keynesiana
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Resumo Investiga-se, à luz da teoria pós-keynesiana, o comportamento da taxa de câmbio no Brasil face as intervenções com swaps cambiais do Banco Central de 2002 a 2015. Analisam-se as propriedades de uma economia aberta, as condicionantes da taxa de câmbio, o mercado cambial e a inserção do Brasil no sistema monetário internacional. Afere-se empiricamente o comportamento cambial frente às operações swap por meio de modelos ARCH/GARCH e VAR. Com os primeiros, observa-se a volatilidade das taxas de câmbio nominal e real efetiva, cujos resultados apontam presença de volatilidade no período. Em seguida, realizam-se estimações VAR, para estudar a variância das taxas de câmbio ante os swaps e variáveis relevantes ao comportamento cambial, concluindo-se que os swaps são respostas ao comportamento da taxa de câmbio nominal, embora seus efeitos são mais visíveis sobre a taxa de câmbio real efetiva.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.046 | 0.108 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".