<p>Neural network and logistic regression diagnostic prediction models for giant cell arteritis: development and validation</p>
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Purpose: To develop and validate neural network (NN) vs logistic regression (LR) diagnostic prediction models in patients with suspected giant cell arteritis (GCA). Design: Multicenter retrospective chart review. Methods: An audit of consecutive patients undergoing temporal artery biopsy (TABx) for suspected GCA was conducted at 14 international medical centers. The outcome variable was biopsy-proven GCA. The predictor variables were age, gender, headache, clinical temporal artery abnormality, jaw claudication, vision loss, diplopia, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, C-reactive protein, and platelet level. The data were divided into three groups to train, validate, and test the models. The NN model with the lowest false-negative rate was chosen. Internal and external validations were performed. Results: Of 1,833 patients who underwent TABx, there was complete information on 1,201 patients, 300 (25%) of whom had a positive TABx. On multivariable LR age, platelets, jaw claudication, vision loss, log C-reactive protein, log erythrocyte sedimentation rate, headache, and clinical temporal artery abnormality were statistically significant predictors of a positive TABx ( P ≤0.05). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve/Hosmer–Lemeshow P for LR was 0.867 (95% CI, 0.794, 0.917)/0.119 vs NN 0.860 (95% CI, 0.786, 0.911)/0.805, with no statistically significant difference of the area under the curves ( P =0.316). The misclassification rate/false-negative rate of LR was 20.6%/47.5% vs 18.1%/30.5% for NN. Missing data analysis did not change the results. Conclusion: Statistical models can aid in the triage of patients with suspected GCA. Misclassification remains a concern, but cutoff values for 95% and 99% sensitivities are provided (https://goo.gl/THCnuU). Keywords: giant cell arteritis, temporal artery biopsy, neural network, logistic regression, prediction models, ophthalmology, rheumatology
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".