Very Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Interval Framework via Bi-Level Optimization and Novel Convex Cost Function
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Substantial challenges in power systems operation and control as a result of the intermittent and stochastic nature of wind power generation can be significantly alleviated by proficient very short-term wind power prediction interval (WPPI) models. In WPPI models, minimization of cost functions is conducted to train prediction engines and consequently tune their parameters. The prevalent cost functions of prediction engines in WPPI models are mainly non-differentiable and non-convex, and therefore the training process becomes problematic. To transcend such a crucial barrier, this paper addresses a new very short-term WPPI framework based on a bi-level formulation and benefiting from a differentiable and convex cost function. The prediction engine is trained by classical global optimization of the cost function in the lower-level problem, while hyperparameters that control the quality of the WPPIs are injected thereto from the upper-level problem. The hyperparameters can be tuned such that the most useful WPPIs are constructed from the lower-level problem depending on the power system operator's preferences. Lessening the need to heuristically tune a large number of prediction engine parameters is the foremost contribution of this work to the WPPI literature. The superior performance of the proposed WPPI is verified in the multistep ahead prediction of real wind power generation data in comparison to well-tailored benchmark models.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".