The unemployed and the formal and informal sectors in South Africa: A macroeconomic analysis
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: At 27.2% in the second quarter of 2018 the official unemployment rate in South Africa ranks as one of the highest in the world. However, depending on whether one uses the official or broad definition of unemployed, since 2008 there are on average between 2 and 3.3 times as many unemployed people as there are people in the informal sector.Aim: This article seeks to explore empirically, using time-series data, the extent to which an increase in the number of unemployed leads to increased entry of workers into the informal sector.Method: We use a Markov-switching vector error correction model.Results: We find that such entrance is very limited, lending credence to the notion that significant entry barriers exist into the informal sector.Conclusion: From a policy point of view these results suggest the need to consider measures that will ease entrance into the informal sector.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it