Unbiased data mining identifies cell cycle transcripts that predict non-indolent Gleason score 7 prostate cancer
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Patients with newly diagnosed non-metastatic prostate adenocarcinoma are typically classified as at low, intermediate, or high risk of disease progression using blood prostate-specific antigen concentration, tumour T category, and tumour pathological Gleason score. Classification is used to both predict clinical outcome and to inform initial management. However, significant heterogeneity is observed in outcome, particularly within the intermediate risk group, and there is an urgent need for additional markers to more accurately hone risk prediction. Recently developed web-based visualization and analysis tools have facilitated rapid interrogation of large transcriptome datasets, and querying broadly across multiple large datasets should identify predictors that are widely applicable. METHODS: We used camcAPP, cBioPortal, CRN, and NIH NCI GDC Data Portal to data mine publicly available large prostate cancer datasets. A test set of biomarkers was developed by identifying transcripts that had: 1) altered abundance in prostate cancer, 2) altered expression in patients with Gleason score 7 tumours and biochemical recurrence, 3) correlation of expression with time until biochemical recurrence across three datasets (Cambridge, Stockholm, MSKCC). Transcripts that met these criteria were then examined in a validation dataset (TCGA-PRAD) using univariate and multivariable models to predict biochemical recurrence in patients with Gleason score 7 tumours. RESULTS: Twenty transcripts met the test criteria, and 12 were validated in TCGA-PRAD Gleason score 7 patients. Ten of these transcripts remained prognostic in Gleason score 3 + 4 = 7, a sub-group of Gleason score 7 patients typically considered at a lower risk for poor outcome and often not targeted for aggressive management. All transcripts positively associated with recurrence encode or regulate mitosis and cell cycle-related proteins. The top performer was BUB1, one of four key MIR145-3P microRNA targets upregulated in hormone-sensitive as well as castration-resistant PCa. SRD5A2 converts testosterone to its more active form and was negatively associated with biochemical recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: Unbiased mining of large patient datasets identified 12 transcripts that independently predicted disease recurrence risk in Gleason score 7 prostate cancer. The mitosis and cell cycle proteins identified are also implicated in progression to castration-resistant prostate cancer, revealing a pivotal role for loss of cell cycle control in the latter.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".