Learning Modular Safe Policies in the Bandit Setting with Application to Adaptive Clinical Trials
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The stochastic multi-armed bandit problem is a well-known model for studying the exploration-exploitation trade-off. It has significant possible applications in adaptive clinical trials, which allow for dynamic changes in the treatment allocation probabilities of patients. However, most bandit learning algorithms are designed with the goal of minimizing the expected regret. While this approach is useful in many areas, in clinical trials, it can be sensitive to outlier data, especially when the sample size is small. In this paper, we define and study a new robustness criterion for bandit problems. Specifically, we consider optimizing a function of the distribution of returns as a regret measure. This provides practitioners more flexibility to define an appropriate regret measure. The learning algorithm we propose to solve this type of problem is a modification of the BESA algorithm [Baransi et al., 2014], which considers a more general version of regret. We present a regret bound for our approach and evaluate it empirically both on synthetic problems as well as on a dataset from the clinical trial literature. Our approach compares favorably to a suite of standard bandit algorithms.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.024 | 0.077 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".